Technology markets, even more than others, increasingly obey the “VUCA” rule, i.e. Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous.
Volatile markets
Volatile because markets reconfigure or disappear rapidly at the rate of technological substitutions which modify their contours, destroy acquired positions and give rise to a new competitive landscape.
Volatile also because “unforeseen events” (COVID 19 or the war in Ukraine, but also sudden changes in exchange rates, political or social unrest) can suddenly make markets disappear or completely change the rules of the game or the strengths of the various players.
It is therefore a matter of being prepared for constant change and never taking a position for granted.
Uncertain markets
Uncertain because it is very difficult to predict how long a market or technology will last, which technical solution will prevail or which leader will emerge in an embryonic or emerging market.
It is therefore a matter of creating, developing and maintaining positions in the face of constant uncertainty.
Complex markets
Complex because this is very often the nature of technology markets. Complexity in :
- Their structure
- Market players and their influence
- Customer needs
- Their operating methods and their evolution
- Anticipation of possible competitor movements
It is therefore a question of being able to read a complex world and still come up with guidelines that are clear enough to be followed collectively, even within a large or international organisation.
Ambiguous markets
Ambiguous because :
- Technology is abundant
- Markets and customers are sending out “weak signals
- These weak signals are often contradictory
- Opinions about the future differ
And that, in spite of everything, you have to take bets, decide and invest for the medium or long term. It is therefore a question of knowing how to interpret these weak signals and to bet on those which will become fundamental trends.
Operating in VUCA universes
The B2B/B2G high-tech company has a certain habit of operating in such an environment: this stems basically from the need to bet and invest in the medium to long term in an uncertain technological world.
However, the VUCA phenomenon is accelerating everywhere and is increasingly challenging the ability of technology companies to identify what the winning bets are in the long run, to develop scenarios based on assumptions of evolution, as well as to develop the necessary agility to adapt quickly to a given technological or economic scenario.
The ability to operate in a “VUCA universe” is a key capability of the technology company.
- At the operational and field level, it is often a capacity developed over time and through experience.
- At the strategic level, it relies on the experience and quality of decision-makers, who sometimes have to make far-reaching decisions (acquisitions or disposals of activities, company acquisitions, technological or geographical choices) on the basis of their convictions.
- It also relies on “strategic intelligence” or “strategic and marketing intelligence” departments or divisions, which are valuable instruments for shedding light on possible or probable futures and guiding companies’ strategic and marketing decisions.
